Gabashin Asiya ya kasance cibiyar nauyi a cikin kera batirin lithium-ion, amma a gabashin Asiya sannu a hankali cibiyar karfin nauyi ta zame zuwa kasar Sin a farkon shekarun 2000.A yau, kamfanonin kasar Sin suna rike da manyan mukamai a sarkar samar da lithium ta duniya, daga sama da kasa, wanda ke wakiltar kusan kashi 80% na kera batir kamar yadda aka yi a shekarar 2021.1 Yaduwar na'urorin lantarki kamar wayoyin salula da kwamfyutocin tafi-da-gidanka sun kara daukar nauyin batirin lithium-ion a cikin shekarun 2000. , kuma a yanzu a cikin 2020's motsi na duniya zuwa motocin lantarki (EVs) yana sanya iska a cikin jiragen ruwa na baturan lithium-ion.Fahimtar kamfanonin lithium na kasar Sin don haka yana da mahimmanci don fahimtar abin da ke haifar da karuwar da ake sa ran za a yi a cikin EV.
Cibiyar Nauyin nauyi ta koma kasar Sin
Nasarorin da suka samu lambar yabo ta Nobel da yawa sun kai ga tallata batirin lithium, musamman Stanley Whittingham a shekarun 1970 da John Goodenough a cikin 1980. Duk da yake waɗannan yunƙurin ba su yi nasara gaba ɗaya ba, sun aza harsashin ci gaba mai mahimmanci na Dr. sanya batir lithium-ion mafi aminci kuma mai amfani da kasuwanci.Daga nan ne, Japan ta samu damar yin takara a farkon tseren sayar da batura na lithium sannan kuma tashin Koriya ta Kudu ya mayar da gabashin Asiya a matsayin cibiyar masana'antar.
A shekarar 2015, kasar Sin ta zarce Koriya ta Kudu da Japan, inda ta zama kan gaba wajen fitar da batirin lithium-ion.Bayan wannan hawan akwai haɗe-haɗe na yunƙurin manufofi da ƙwaƙƙwaran kasuwanci.Kamfanoni biyu na matasa, BYD da Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL), sun zama masu bin diddigi kuma yanzu sun kasance kusan kashi 70% na ƙarfin baturi a China.2
A cikin 1999, wani injiniya mai suna Robin Zeng ya taimaka wajen gano Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), wanda turbo ya haɓaka haɓakarsa a 2003 ta hanyar kulla yarjejeniya da Apple don yin batir iPod.A cikin 2011, ayyukan baturi na EV na ATL an juya su cikin Kamfanin Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL).A farkon rabin shekarar 2022, CATL ta mamaye kashi 34.8% na kasuwar batirin EV ta duniya.3
A shekarar 1995, wani masani mai suna Wang Chuanfu ya nufi kudu zuwa Shenzhen, domin kafa kamfanin BYD.Nasarar farko da BYD ya samu a masana'antar lithium ya fito ne daga kera batir na wayoyin hannu da na'urorin lantarki da kuma siyan kayayyun kadarori na BYD daga kamfanin Jeep na Beijing ya nuna farkon tafiyarsa a sararin samaniyar motoci.A cikin 2007, ci gaban BYD ya kama idon Berkshire Hathaway.A ƙarshen rabin farko na 2022, BYD ya zarce Tesla a cikin tallace-tallace na EV na duniya, kodayake ya zo tare da faɗakarwa cewa BYD yana sayar da EVs masu tsafta da kuma matasan EVs, yayin da Tesla ke mai da hankali kawai akan EVs.4.
Yunƙurin CATL da BYD sun sami taimako ta tallafin siyasa.A shekara ta 2004, baturan lithium ya fara shiga ajandar masu tsara manufofin kasar Sin, tare da "manufofin raya masana'antar kera motoci," daga baya a shekarar 2009 da 2010 tare da bullo da tallafin batura da tashoshi na cajin EV.5 A cikin shekarun 2010, tsarin ya kasance. Tallafin ya ba da dala 10,000 zuwa dala 20,000 don motocin lantarki, kuma an ba da shi ne kawai ga kamfanonin da ke haɗa motoci a China tare da batir lithium-ion daga masu samar da batir na China. Batir na kasar Sin yana yin mafi kyawun zaɓi.
Amincewar EV a China Ya Kori Buƙatar Lithium
Jagorancin kasar Sin wajen karbar EV wani bangare ne na dalilin da ya sa bukatar batirin lithium ke karuwa a duniya.Ya zuwa 2021, kashi 13% na motocin da aka sayar a China ko dai matasan ne ko kuma EVs masu tsafta kuma ana sa ran adadin zai karu.Haɓaka CATL da BYD zuwa manyan gwanaye na duniya a cikin shekaru ashirin yana ɗaukar ƙarfin EVs a China.
Kamar yadda EVs ke samun yaɗuwa, buƙatu yana jujjuya daga batura masu tushen nickel zuwa ga batura masu tushen ƙarfe (LFPs), waɗanda da zarar sun faɗi cikin ni'ima don samun ƙarancin ƙarfin kuzari (saboda haka ƙarancin kewayon).A saukake ga kasar Sin, kashi 90% na masana'antar LFP cell a duk duniya suna dogara ne a kasar Sin.7 Tsarin sauyawa daga tushen nickel zuwa LFP ba mai wahala ba ne, don haka a zahiri kasar Sin za ta rasa wani kaso a wannan sararin samaniya, amma duk da haka kasar Sin ta bayyana. matsayi mai kyau don kula da matsayi mai mahimmanci a cikin sararin LFP don nan gaba mai yiwuwa.
A cikin 'yan shekarun nan, BYD yana ci gaba tare da Batirin Blade na LFP, wanda ke ɗaga shinge don amincin baturi.Tare da sabon tsarin fakitin baturi wanda ke inganta amfani da sararin samaniya, BYD ya bayyana cewa Batirin Blade ba kawai ya ci gwajin shigar farce ba, amma yanayin zafin jiki ya kasance mai sanyi sosai. motoci, manyan masu kera motoci kamar Toyota da Tesla suma suna shirin ko sun riga sun yi amfani da Batirin Blade, kodayake tare da Tesla wasu rashin tabbas kan nawa ne.9,10,11
A halin yanzu, a cikin Yuni 2022 CATL ta ƙaddamar da batirin Qilin.Ba kamar Baturi Blade ba wanda ke da nufin canza ƙa'idodin aminci, baturin Qilin ya bambanta kansa da yawa akan yawan kuzari da lokutan caji.12 CATL na da'awar ana iya cajin baturin zuwa 80% a cikin mintuna 10 kuma yana iya amfani da 72% na ƙarfin baturi don tuki, duka biyun. wanda ke nuna babban ci gaban fasahar da ke bayan waɗannan batura.13,14
Kamfanonin kasar Sin sun tabbatar da matsayi na dabaru a cikin sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya
Yayin da ayyukan CATL da BYD a cikin sararin samaniyar EV na da muhimmanci, bai kamata a yi watsi da yawan kasancewar kasar Sin a sassan sama ba.Kaso na zaki na danyen lithium noman yana faruwa ne a Australia da Chile, wadanda ke da kaso 55% a duniya da kashi 26%.A bangaren sama, kasar Sin ce ke da kashi 14% na samar da lithium a duniya.
Masu yin batir da masu hakar ma'adinai suna gudanar da sayayyar sayayya.Wasu sanannun misalai a cikin 2021 sun haɗa da Zijin Mining Group ta $765mn siyan Tres Quebradas da CATL $298mn na Cauchari Gabas da Pastos Grandes, duka a Argentina.16 A cikin Yuli 2022, Ganfeng Lithium ya sanar da shirinsa na siyan 100% na Lithea Inc. a Argentina kan farashin da ya kai dalar Amurka miliyan 962.17 A takaice dai, lithium wani muhimmin sinadari ne da ke bayan koren juyin juya hali kuma kamfanonin kasar Sin suna son zuba jari a cikin lithium don tabbatar da cewa ba a bar su ba.
Ajiye Makamashi Yana Nuna Mahimman Ƙalubalen Muhalli
Alkawuran kasar Sin na samun kololuwar hayaki nan da shekarar 2030, da kuma kawar da gurbataccen iska nan da shekarar 2060, wani bangare ne na abin da ke kara jawo bukatar daukar EV.Wani muhimmin sinadari na samun nasarar sabbin manufofin kasar Sin shi ne daukar fasahar adana makamashi.Ajiye makamashi yana tafiya kafada da kafada da ayyukan makamashin da ake iya sabuntawa, kuma shine dalilin da ya sa a yanzu gwamnatin kasar Sin ta ba da umarni kashi 5-20% na ajiyar makamashi don tafiya da ayyukan makamashi mai sabuntawa.Ajiye yana da mahimmanci don kiyaye takurawa, wato ragewa da gangan a cikin wutar lantarki saboda rashin buƙata ko matsalolin watsawa, zuwa ƙarami.
Ma'ajiyar ruwa da aka yi amfani da shi a halin yanzu shine mafi girman tushen ajiyar makamashi tare da 30.3 GW kamar na 2020, duk da haka kusan kashi 89% na ajiyar da ba na ruwa ba ta hanyar batir lithium-ion ne. batura sun fi dacewa da ɗan gajeren ajiyar lokaci, wanda shine ƙarin abin da ake buƙata don sabuntawa.
A halin yanzu kasar Sin tana da kusan 3.3GW na karfin ajiyar makamashin batir amma tana da tsare-tsare na fadadawa.Wadannan tsare-tsare an bayyana su dalla-dalla a cikin shiri na shekaru biyar na 14 na tanadin makamashi wanda aka fitar a watan Maris na 2022.20 Daya daga cikin manyan makasudin shirin shi ne rage kudin ajiyar makamashin da kashi 30% nan da shekarar 2025, wanda zai ba da damar ajiya. Don zama zabin da ake so a fannin tattalin arziki.21 Bugu da kari, a karkashin shirin, gwamnatin kasar Sin na fatan kara karfin ajiyar batir 100GW nan da shekarar 2030, don tallafawa bunkasuwar abubuwan da za a iya sabuntawa, wanda zai sa tawagogin ajiyar batir na kasar Sin ya zama mafi girma a duniya, duk da cewa a gaba kadan. Amurka wadda aka yi hasashen za ta samu karfin 99GW.22
Kammalawa
Kamfanonin kasar Sin sun riga sun canza tsarin samar da lithium na duniya, amma suna ci gaba da yin kirkire-kirkire cikin sauri.A matsayin shaida kan muhimmancin da suke da shi a masana'antar, ya zuwa ranar 18 ga Agusta, 2022, kamfanonin kasar Sin sun samu kashi 41.2 cikin 100 na ma'aunin Solactive Lithium Index, wanda ya kasance wani ginshiƙi da aka tsara don bin diddigin ayyukan manyan kamfanoni masu ruwa da tsaki da suke gudanar da aikin bincike da bincike. /ko hakar lithium ko samar da batir lithium.23 A duk duniya, farashin lithium ya karu da ninki 13 tsakanin Yuli 1, 2020 da Yuli 1, 2022, har zuwa $67,050 kan kowace ton.24 A kasar Sin, farashin lithium carbonate ya yi tsalle. Daga 105000 RMB zuwa 475500 RMB tsakanin 20 ga Agusta, 2021 da 19 ga Agusta 2022, wanda ya nuna karuwar da kashi 357.25 Da farashin lithium carbonate ya tashi a ko'ina cikin tarihi, kamfanoni na kasar Sin a dabi'ance suna da damar cin moriyar juna.
Wannan yanayin farashin lithium ya taimaka wa hannayen jarin China da Amurka da ke da alaƙa da batura da lithium ɗin da suka zarce fa'ida mai fa'ida mai fa'ida a cikin yanayin kasuwa;tsakanin Agusta 18, 2021 da Aug 18, 2022, MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Battery Index ya dawo da 1.60% a kan -22.28% na MSCI China All Shares Index.26 A gaskiya ma, batir da kayan baturi na kasar Sin hannun jari sun zarce hannun jari na lithium na duniya. kamar yadda MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Battery Index ya dawo da 1.60% a kan Solactive Global Lithium Index wanda ya dawo da -0.74% a daidai wannan lokacin.27
Mun yi imanin farashin lithium zai kasance mai girma a cikin shekaru masu zuwa, yana aiki azaman yuwuwar iska ga masu yin baturi.Duk da haka, muna sa rai.inganta fasahar batirin lithium na iya sa EVs su zama masu araha da inganci, wanda hakan na iya haɓaka buƙatun lithium.Idan aka yi la'akari da tasirin da kasar Sin ke da shi a cikin sarkar samar da lithium, muna sa ran kamfanonin kasar Sin za su taka muhimmiyar rawa a masana'antar lithium na shekaru masu zuwa.
Lokacin aikawa: Nuwamba-05-2022